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Subject: Atlantic Storm Scenario Assumptions - Center for Biosecurity of UPMC - Bioterrorism, Biodefense, Public Health Preparedness
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          <TD class=3Dsection>Atlantic Storm</TD>
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      <P class=3Dtitle>Atlantic Storm Scenario Assumptions</P>
      <P>Distributed at end of exercise =96 January 14, 2005</P>
      <OL type=3DI>
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#1">Exercise=20
        Background</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#2">Method=20
        of Smallpox Attacks</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#3">BW=20
        Laboratory Discovered in Austria</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#4">Smallpox=20
        Attacks: Sites and Rationale for Attack Size</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#5">Smallpox=20
        Epidemiology Assumptions</A>=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#6">Process=20
        for Acquiring and Vetting Smallpox Response Plans and Vaccine=20
        Stockpiles</A> </LI></OL>
      <P class=3Dsubheading><A name=3D1></A>I. Exercise Background:</P>
      <P><STRONG>Premise</STRONG></P>
      <P>An informal group of international leaders was scheduled to =
meet in=20
      Washington, DC, on January 14, 2005, for a =93Transatlantic =
Security Summit=94=20
      on international cooperation on preparing and responding to WMD =
terrorism.=20
      On the eve of the summit, it became apparent that people from =
several=20
      European countries were infected with smallpox. Before returning =
to their=20
      home nations to manage the crisis, the assembled leaders agreed to =
convene=20
      an emergency meeting to address the steps the transatlantic =
community=20
      could take to respond to the crisis. </P>
      <P>The exercise was designed to run in real time in the real world =
of=20
      January 14, 2005. No other artificial political or economic =
context was=20
      added. </P>
      <P><STRONG>World Leaders in Attendance: </STRONG></P>
      <P><EM>Prime Minister of Canada<BR>President of the European=20
      Commission<BR>Chancellor of the Federal Republic of =
Germany<BR>President=20
      of France<BR>Prime Minister of Italy<BR>Prime Minister of the=20
      Netherlands<BR>Prime Minister of Poland<BR>Prime Minister of=20
      Sweden<BR>Prime Minister of the United Kingdom<BR>President of the =
United=20
      States<BR>Director General, World Health Organization</EM></P>
      <P><A class=3Dreturn=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#top">return=20
      to top</A></P>
      <P class=3Dsubheading><A id=3D2 name=3D2></A>II. Method of =
Smallpox Attacks </P>
      <P><STRONG>Smallpox Biological Weapon: </STRONG></P>
      <P>Seed stocks of Variola major virus (the causative agent of =
smallpox)=20
      were obtained by Al-Jihad Al-Jadid from a bioweapons facility in =
the=20
      former Soviet Union. <BR><BR>The Al-Jihad Al-Jadid scientists =
received=20
      microbiological training at Indian and U.S. universities. These =
scientists=20
      received additional training when the group hired a scientist who =
was part=20
      of the former Soviet Union=92s offensive biological weapons =
program. This=20
      scientist taught the Al-Jihad Al-Jadid scientists how to grow a =
number of=20
      biological agents, including variola major, <EM>Bacillus =
anthracis</EM>,=20
      Ebola virus, and <EM>Burkholderia mallei</EM> (glanders). The =
terrorist=20
      group combined this knowledge with publicly available technical=20
      information to develop dry powder preparations of the viruses. =
Then, with=20
      their own microbiology training, the terrorist group was able to =
acquire=20
      all the required laboratory equipment to grow and process the =
Variola=20
      major seed stock they had acquired into a relatively high-quality =
dry=20
      powder that was then used in the attacks.</P>
      <P>The attacks were carried out by vaccinated terrorists who =
walked=20
      throughout the target locations for several hours during periods =
of peak=20
      occupancy. A commercially available dry powder dispenser the size =
of a=20
      small fire extinguisher hidden in a backpack was used to =
disseminate the=20
      agent.</P>
      <UL>
        <LI>Based on reports from Russian scientists, variola viral =
stocks are=20
        believed to exist in at least two and possibly three of the =
former=20
        biological weapons laboratories in the former Soviet Union. Many =
of=20
        those who once worked in these laboratories are now working in =
other=20
        countries, but little information is available as to where they =
are or=20
        what they are doing.<A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">1</A>=20

        <LI>The former Soviet Union made smallpox biological weapons in=20
        industrial-scale (i.e., tens and hundreds of tons) quantities.<A =

        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">2</A>=20

        <LI>Smallpox virus can be grown in embryonated eggs and a =
variety of=20
        tissue cell culture systems.=20
        <LI>If one were to make a dried powder preparation of a virus, =
one would=20
        have several sources for information on methods. Variola virus =
can be=20
        processed to a stable dried form just as vaccinia virus is dried =
to make=20
        a vaccine. There is a significant amount of open source =
technical=20
        information on the creation of dry powder bioaerosols.=20
        <LI>There are many commercial freeze-dryers available; a simple =
internet=20
        search will pull up a bench-top model that would be adequate.=20
        <LI>The amount of smallpox virions required to infect humans is =
presumed=20
        to be very low.<A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">3</A>,<A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">4</A>=20

        <LI>Disseminating bioaerosols via dry powder dispensers and =
sprayers is=20
        possible, and a number of these devices are commercially =
available.=20
      </LI></UL>
      <P><A class=3Dreturn=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#top">return=20
      to top</A></P>
      <P class=3Dsubheading><A id=3D3 name=3D3></A>III. BW Laboratory =
Discovered in=20
      Austria</P>
      <P>This laboratory was disguised as a small brewery in Klagenfurt, =

      Austria. The facility contained seed stocks of the smallpox and =
Ebola=20
      viruses and the <EM>Bacillus anthracis</EM> bacterium. The =
laboratory=20
      contained all the equipment required for a modern =
<BR><BR>microbiology=20
      laboratory, including: incubators, fermenters, freezers, and=20
      biocontainment cabinets, as well as instruments and reagents =
required for=20
      modern molecular biology techniques and genetic engineering. All =
of this=20
      laboratory equipment is entirely dual-use, is available on the =
open=20
      market, and could be housed in a building as small as a 3-car =
garage.</P>
      <P><A class=3Dreturn=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#top">return=20
      to top</A></P>
      <P class=3Dsubheading><A id=3D4 name=3D4></A>IV. Smallpox Attacks: =
Sites and=20
      Rationale for Attack Size</P>
      <P><STRONG>Frankfurt am Main, Germany</STRONG><BR><STRONG>Date of=20
      attack:</STRONG> January 2, 2005<BR><STRONG>Attack site:</STRONG>=20
      Frankfurt Airport<BR><STRONG>Number of infected:</STRONG>=20
      16,000<BR><STRONG>Rationale:</STRONG> 131,500 people go through =
Frankfurt=20
      airport on an average day. Holiday traffic could be as much as 50% =
higher.=20
      <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">5</A></P>
      <P><STRONG>Rotterdam, Netherlands</STRONG><BR><STRONG>Date of=20
      attack:</STRONG> January 2, 2005<BR><STRONG>Attack site:</STRONG> =
RET=20
      Metro System <BR><STRONG>Number of infected:</STRONG>=20
      8,000<BR><STRONG>Rationale:</STRONG> The Rotterdam Metro has two =
lines,=20
      the Ersamus line (110,000 people per day) and the Caland line =
(119,000=20
      people per day). The Caland line includes the Pernis stop, which =
serves=20
      the Port of Rotterdam. <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">6</A></P>
      <P><STRONG>Warsaw, Poland</STRONG><BR><STRONG>Date of =
attack:</STRONG>=20
      January 2, 2005<BR><STRONG>Attack site:</STRONG> Metro Warszawskie =

      <BR><STRONG>Number of infected:</STRONG>=20
      12,000<BR><STRONG>Rationale:</STRONG> 280,000 passengers per day =
<A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">7</A></P>
      <P><STRONG>Los Angeles, USA</STRONG><BR><STRONG>Date of =
attack:</STRONG>=20
      January 4, 2005<BR><STRONG>Attack site:</STRONG> Los Angeles =
International=20
      Airport <BR><STRONG>Number infected:</STRONG>=20
      16,000<BR><STRONG>Rationale:</STRONG> 150,000 passengers per day; =
holiday=20
      traffic could be as much as 50% higher. <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">8</A></P>
      <P><STRONG>New York City, USA</STRONG><BR><STRONG>Date of =
attack:</STRONG>=20
      January 4, 2005<BR><STRONG>Attack site:</STRONG> Penn Station=20
      <BR><STRONG>Number of infected:</STRONG>=20
      24,000<BR><STRONG>Rationale:</STRONG> An estimated 600,000 people =
travel=20
      through Penn Station each day. <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">9</A></P>
      <P><BR><STRONG>Istanbul, Turkey</STRONG><BR><STRONG>Date of=20
      attack:</STRONG> January 1, 2005<BR><STRONG>Attack site:</STRONG> =
Grand=20
      Bazaar <BR><STRONG>Number of infected:</STRONG>=20
      8,000<BR><STRONG>Rationale:</STRONG> The Grand Bazaar of Istanbul =
is a=20
      covered market with 5,000 shops. It has 25,000 employees and =
250,000=20
      visitors per day. <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">10</A></P>
      <P><A class=3Dreturn=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#top">return=20
      to top</A></P>
      <P class=3Dsubheading><A id=3D5 name=3D5></A>V. Smallpox =
Epidemiology=20
      Assumptions</P>
      <P><STRONG>Total Infected During Attacks: 76,000</STRONG></P>
      <UL>
        <LI><STRONG>8,000</STRONG> infected in Istanbul on January 1 =
(Grand=20
        Bazaar)=20
        <LI><STRONG>16,000</STRONG> infected in Frankfurt on January 2=20
        (Frankfurt Airport)=20
        <LI><STRONG>8,000</STRONG> infected in Rotterdam on January 2 =
(Metro)=20
        <LI><STRONG>12,000</STRONG> infected in Warsaw on January 2 =
(Metro)=20
        <LI><STRONG>16,000</STRONG> infected Los Angeles on January 4 =
(LAX=20
        airport)=20
        <LI><STRONG>24,000</STRONG> infected in New York on January 4 =
(Penn=20
        Station) </LI></UL>
      <P>Epidemiological curve for the emergence of smallpox cases was =
based on:=20
      Figure 4.7, in Fenner, et al., <EM>Smallpox and Its =
Eradication</EM>:</P>
      <P align=3Dcenter><IMG height=3D402=20
      =
src=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/images/figure_=
4_7.gif"=20
      width=3D608></P>
      <UL>
        <LI>It was assumed that smallpox symptoms began (as early as 7 =
days=20
        after infection) with 2 days of fever, followed by a rash. <A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">11</A>=20

        <LI>It was assumed that initial diagnoses in European countries =
on=20
        January 13 were made in people who had at least day 3 of rash. =
This=20
        assumption is based on pictures in Fenner, et al.,<A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">12</A>=20
        and the expert medical opinion of the Center for Biosecurity=92s =
medical=20
        doctors, including Dr. D. A. Henderson.=20
        <LI>It was assumed that by January 14, numbers of suspect =
smallpox cases=20
        would begin to reflect reports of smallpox cases in much earlier =
stages=20
        of development (day 1, 2, or 3 of rash). Once the attacks are=20
        recognized, smallpox will be suspected in people who exhibit =
rash or=20
        fever but are in fact not infected with smallpox. </LI></UL>
      <P><STRONG>Accumulation of cases from 9 AM to 1:30 PM on January =
14 (start=20
      to end of exercise) was calculated as follows:</STRONG></P>
      <UL>
        <LI>It was assumed that by 1:35 PM EST on January 14, between =
10% and=20
        30% of patients with day one rash and beyond would be reported =
to health=20
        authorities.=20
        <LI>These reports would include some =93false positive=94 cases. =
</LI></UL>
      <P><STRONG>Calculations of final casualties and deaths for the =
final=20
      video</STRONG></P>
      <P>We assumed a 25% case fatality rate. We assumed a modest =
decrease in=20
      the historic case fatality rate of 30% due to access to modern =
health care=20
      for some victims and some degree of residual immunity in a modest =
number=20
      of adults vaccinated before 1980. </P>
      <UL>
        <LI>Person-to-person spread in the first generation of cases was =
1:3 in=20
        all countries. <A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#f1">13</A>=20

        <LI>Person-to-person spread in second generation was 1:0.25=20
        <UL>
          <LI>This lower transmission rate is used because highly =
effective=20
          disease control measures had been established by mid-February, =

          including access to vaccine sufficient to vaccinate millions =
of=20
          contacts and health-care workers in all the countries that =
were=20
          attacked.=20
          <LI>It was assumed that leaders of countries with large =
vaccine=20
          stockpiles would share vaccine with affected countries that =
had small=20
          vaccine stockpiles.=20
          <LI>It also presumed that large-scale vaccination would begin =
to take=20
          place within days after January 14 and that countries would =
impose=20
          strict isolation of cases and that residents in affected =
countries=20
          would self-impose an increased social distance (e.g., =
cancellation of=20
          big public events). </LI></UL>
        <LI>The spread and fatality assumptions were necessary to create =
a final=20
        video that depicted a possible outcome of the players=92 =
decisions. The=20
        <EM>Atlantic Storm</EM> participants may have chosen different =
actions=20
        than what exercise designers believed they would take. =
</LI></UL>
      <TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D5 width=3D"100%" border=3D1>
        <TBODY>
        <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD width=3D"16%">
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>Site of =
Attacks</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD width=3D"18%">
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>1st Generation: visible by ~Jan=20
            21</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD width=3D"19%">
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>2nd Generation: visible from =
~Jan 21-Feb=20
            3<BR>(rate of spread =3D 1:3)</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD width=3D"22%">
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>3rd Generation: ~Feb 3-Feb =
28<BR>(rate of=20
            spread =3D 1:0.25) </STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD width=3D"25%">
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>Cumulative cases/deaths by end =
of=20
            February</STRONG></DIV></TD></TR>
        <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>U.S.</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>40,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>120,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>30,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>190,000/47,500</DIV></TD></TR>
        <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>Netherlands</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>8,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>24,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>6,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>38,000/9,500</DIV></TD></TR>
        <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>Germany</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>16,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>48,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>12,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>76,000/6,250</DIV></TD></TR>
        <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>Poland</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>12,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>36,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>9,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>57,000/14,500</DIV></TD></TR>
        <TR vAlign=3Dtop>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter><STRONG>Turkey</STRONG></DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>8,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>24,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV align=3Dcenter>6,000</DIV></TD>
          <TD>
            <DIV =
align=3Dcenter>38,000/9,500</DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
      <P><A class=3Dreturn=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#top">return=20
      to top</A></P>
      <P><SPAN class=3Dsubheading><A id=3D6 name=3D6></A>VI. Process for =
Acquiring and=20
      Vetting Smallpox Response Plans and Vaccine Stockpiles</SPAN></P>
      <P><STRONG>Methodology for Summarizing National Smallpox Response=20
      Plans</STRONG></P>
      <P><EM>Atlantic Storm</EM> was designed to illustrate the =
challenges of=20
      mounting an effective international response to bioterrorism. It =
was not=20
      intended to test individual nations=92 bioterrorism response =
plans. However,=20
      the people playing the roles of national leaders needed to be =
briefed on=20
      their nations=92 plans. Therefore, the smallpox response plans for =
the=20
      nations involved in the exercise were summarized by the exercise =
design=20
      team. All the summaries distributed during the exercise were =
reviewed by=20
      knowledgeable experts from the respective nations. From these =
summaries,=20
      one-page briefing memos were prepared for each participant.</P>
      <P><STRONG>Methodology for Determining Sizes of National Vaccine=20
      Stockpiles</STRONG></P>
      <P>Vaccine stocks for countries were determined in the following =
manner:=20
      First, a search of open source literature was performed by the =
Atlantic=20
      Storm team to determine current country stockpiles. Members of the =

      Atlantic Storm team then communicated with officials from the =
World Health=20
      Organization, commercial sources, and other knowledgeable experts =
to=20
      assess the status of global national vaccine stocks. </P>
      <UL>
        <LI>Population figures were gathered from the CIA World Fact =
book in=20
        December 2004.=20
        <LI>Countries that specifically stated they had sufficient =
vaccine=20
        supplies to vaccinate their populations were assumed to have a =
number of=20
        vaccine doses equal to or greater than their country=92s =
population.=20
        <LI>Reports of vaccine orders were assumed to be filled unless =
there was=20
        specific information to the contrary.=20
        <LI>For this exercise, we assumed that nations have sufficient=20
        bifurcated needles to administer vaccine, regardless of how much =
the=20
        vaccine was diluted. </LI></UL>
      <P><A class=3Dreturn=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#top">return=20
      to top</A></P>
      <P><IMG height=3D15=20
      src=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/images/gray_dot_thin.gif"=20
      width=3D"100%"></P>
      <OL>
        <LI><SPAN class=3Dsubheading><A id=3Df1 =
name=3Df1></A></SPAN>Alibek K,=20
        Handelman S. <EM>Biohazard: The Chilling True Story of the =
Largest=20
        Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World=97Told from =
Inside by the=20
        Man Who Ran It</EM>. New York: Random House; 1999.=20
        <LI>Ibid.=20
        <LI>Henderson DA, et al. <A=20
        =
href=3D"http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/281/22/2127?maxtoshow=3D=
&amp;HITS=3D10&amp;hits=3D10&amp;RESULTFORMAT=3D&amp;fulltext=3Dsmallpox&=
amp;searchid=3D1049721621113_1621&amp;stored_search=3D&amp;FIRSTINDEX=3D0=
&amp;journalcode=3Djama"=20
        target=3D_blank>Smallpox as a biological weapon: medical and =
public health=20
        management</A>. <EM>JAMA</EM> 1999;281(22): 2127=9637.=20
        <LI>Wehrle PF, et al. An airborne outbreak of smallpox in a =
German=20
        hospital and its significance with respect to other recent =
outbreaks in=20
        Europe.. <EM>Bull World Health Organ</EM> 1970;43(5):669=9679.=20
        <LI><A href=3D"http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004547.html"=20
        target=3D_blank>World=92s Busiest Airports by Passengers and =
Cargo,=20
        2003</A>. Accessed December 30, 2004.=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.ret.rotterdam.nl/ret_eng/bedrijf/metro/met_x.html"=20
        target=3D_blank>RET Metro</A>. Accessed December 30, 2004.=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.metro.waw.pl/page.php?id=3D56&amp;lng=3Den&amp;PHPSESS=
ID=3D807bbce72fe7668180d37ca2c5af9a18"=20
        target=3D_blank>Metro Warszawskie Sp. Z O.O.</A> Accessed =
December 30,=20
        2004.=20
        <LI><A href=3D"http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004547.html"=20
        target=3D_blank>World=92s Busiest Airports by Passengers and =
Cargo,=20
        2003</A>. Accessed December 30, 2004.=20
        <LI><A=20
        =
href=3D"http://www.archcenter.ru/eng/council/PennStation/default.asp"=20
        target=3D_blank>CCA Innovation</A>. Accessed January 4, 2005.=20
        <LI><A =
href=3D"http://www.icsc.org/srch/mt/descs/2005RWS/2005RWS.pdf"=20
        target=3D_blank>Retail Real Estate Summitt 2005</A>. Accessed =
January 5,=20
        2005&nbsp;&nbsp;<FONT face=3DArial,Helvetica,sans-serif><B><IMG =
height=3D16=20
        src=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/images/acopdflogo.gif" =
width=3D27=20
        align=3DabsBottom border=3D0> </B></FONT><FONT=20
        face=3DArial,Helvetica,sans-serif size=3D1><I>requires </I><A=20
        href=3D"http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html"=20
        target=3D_blank>Acrobat Reader</A></FONT>.=20
        <LI>Fenner F, Henderson DA, Arita I, Jezek Z, Ladnyi ID. =
Smallpox and=20
        Its Eradication. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; =

        1988:1460.=20
        <LI>Ibid.=20
        <LI>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. <A=20
        href=3D"http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/disease/movies.asp" =

        target=3D_blank>What We Learn about Smallpox from Movies =96 =
Fact or=20
        Fiction?</A> Accessed January 5, 2005. </LI></OL>
      <P><A class=3Dreturn=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/misc/atlantic_storm/assumptions.h=
tml#top">return=20
      to top</A></P><!-- InstanceEndEditable -->
      <P>&nbsp;</P>
      <P class=3Dcopyright>Copyright 2004 =
UPMC</P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV><!-- InstanceEnd =
--></BODY></HTML>

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